Theory of Historical Cycles (Strauss–Howe)

The theory of historical cycles by William Strauss and Neil Howe was presented in the books "Generations" (1991) and "The Fourth Turning" (1997).

Method of the authors. The authors analyzed Anglo-American history from the 15th century onward and discovered, by their account, a stable rhythm: every 80 to 90 years (four generations of roughly 20 to 22 years each), history completes a full cycle — a "saeculum" — passing through four characteristic eras, or "turnings".

Four Turnings

• The High — after a crisis: institutional building, collective optimism
• The Awakening — cultural revolution, individualism against the collective
• The Unraveling — individualism ascends, institutions weaken, social consensus fragments
• The Crisis — mortal threat, mobilization, birth of a new order

Generational archetypes. Each turning raises a generation with a characteristic archetype: Prophets, Nomads, Heroes and Artists.

Archetype Defined by Phase

Not year, but experience. A generation's archetype is determined not by year of birth as such, but by which phase of the cycle shaped its childhood, youth, and maturity.

Boomers as Prophets. Baby Boomers in Strauss-Howe theory are "Prophets": they grew up during the postwar High, and their youth coincided with the Awakening of the 1960s.

Millennials as Heroes. Millennials are "Heroes", analogous to the World War II generation, who came of age during the Unraveling and confronted the Crisis.

Place in Errarium

The only macro-historical method. In Errarium, the Strauss-Howe system occupies a unique position: it is the only method with a macro-historical scale (T4) in the platform's classification.

Not the individual, but the collective. It works not with individual psychology, but with the collective destinies of generations.

Limitation. Historical Eurocentrism and debatable universality of the identified patterns beyond the Anglo-American context.